Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Models & Forecasts

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Nate Silver's avatar
Eli McKown-Dawson's avatar
Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Jul 17, 2026
∙ Paid

🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating

Updated July 17, 2026

Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved somewhat over the last few weeks. It hit a second term low of -20.2 back in May. But today, Trump’s net approval rating is up to -17.4. Is he still less popular than he was at this point in his first term? Yes. But Trump is actually slightly more popular than Joe Biden was at the equivalent point (-19.2 net approval vs -17.4) in his term.

Over the past couple days, we’ve added a series of polls to the average — such as those from The Washington Post, Echelon Insights, and YouGov — that showed Trump’s net approval rating closer to -22. But before that, most recent polls had him in the -15 to -20 range, which is why he improved in our average. -EMD, 7/16/26

See also: Generic congressional ballot dashboard and Iran War support dashboard.

This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin presidential approval ratings. We’ll regularly update the charts below as new polls about Donald Trump’s approval rating come in.1 This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.

Click here for more information on how the average works. The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here.

The topline: So, just how popular is Trump?

Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version.2 This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote.

The polls: What do the surveys say?

Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.3 Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people.

Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity. By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how the “house effects” adjustment that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model. You can also click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below.

The issues: What do Americans think of Trump’s policies?

Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living.

The deep dive

We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers:

  • How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman?

  • How many voters strongly approve or disapprove of Trump?

  • What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters?

You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Nate Silver · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture