2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.
⚽ The latest World Cup predictions: Updated June 28, 2026
Knockout round set after weird finale in Kansas City knocks Iran out
The knockout-round field of 32 is complete following a very weird and fun match in Kansas City in which both Algeria and Austria had a strong incentive to draw and managed to do so, but only after trading goals in stoppage time in a match that ended 3-3. The result knocked Iran out of the final slot.
We’re transitioning the model into knockout-round mode. Note that there are charts showing each team's chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, odds for R32 games and so forth.
The model adjusts its odds after each game, playing out the rest of the tournament 100,000 times while giving teams credit (or blame) for their performance so far. We don’t want to overpromise, and we have a small team, so expect one update per day, but you may occasionally see intraday updates after important matches.
For our methodology, see here.
See also: PELE International Football Rankings.
So, who’s gonna win the World Cup? While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. Each time we run the model, we play out 100,000 simulated World Cups, accounting for the difficulty of each team’s draw, meticulously calculating tiebreakers, and even the possibility of a dark-horse contender getting hot and unexpectedly being in top form.1 Let’s look at the PELE ratings and some specific adjustments that we’ve made to them for the World Cup.
Part I. Team and group ratings ⚽
Our baseline PELE ratings are adjusted in several ways for the tournament. First, we account for differences between PELE’s algorithmically calculated rosters and the actual, announced World Cup rosters. Thus, we correct for the impact of injuries or otherwise unexpected player absences.2
Second, we update each team’s rating based on the quality of their performance relative to PELE’s expectations for each match. And third, we adjust for home-field advantage on a match-by-match basis.3 The factor is customized for each team: as it happens, the U.S., Canada and especially Mexico4 have above-average home-field advantages.
You can see the impact of some of PELE’s advanced features. Norway, for instance, receives a boost from Erling Haaland because PELE accounts for player market values. Let’s take the rest of this in phases:
Ratings and forecasts will be updated at the end of each match day5. Paid subscribers will also get access to our full suite of PELE ratings and our forthcoming midterm election forecasts.
Part II. Knockout stage projections ⚽
Here is each team’s probability of winning the World Cup, and advancing to each stage of the knockout round, using an old-school, FiveThirtyEight heatmap format.